CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001)

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Please enter a copy of the entire notification here:
## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T13:17:36Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20241002-AL-001 and 20241002-AL-002).

Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 42 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2024-10-04T08:14Z and 2024-10-04T20:50Z (average arrival 2024-10-04T14:42Z) for 50% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-10-04T12:25Z and 2024-10-05T07:13Z (average arrival 2024-10-04T21:10Z) for 100% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is an 83% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_STA_stack.gif

## Notes:
This CME event (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Lucy at 2024-10-04T19:43Z and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow) at 2024-10-03T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20241002-AL-002).

This CME event (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001) is associated with X7.1 flare with ID 2024-10-01T21:58:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13942 (S17E18) which peaked at 2024-10-01T22:20Z (see notifications 20241001-AL-003 and 20241001-AL-004).

Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/Detailed_results_20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071.txt



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